The harvest glut
What the harvest fetched
Official farm-gate averages tell one story. The spot market tells another. The line is the sourced annual series; the band appears only in years with a published range, and is not interpolated.
The six-to-eight-year lag
This is the core of the desk: how much agave was cut for tequila, how much is standing, where it is planted, and when the 2019 boom fields come of age. High prices triggered a planting rush. The plant cannot be hurried. The harvest is arriving now.
What the harvest became
Tequila output is not the same thing as sales. 2025 set a production mark while exports barely moved, and US tequila and mezcal volume went sideways.
What named sources say next
Industry forecasts, not this desk’s own model. Each card keeps the name of who said it. The charts plot only numbered CAGRs or targets those sources published — dashed lines and paler bars are projections, not actuals.
Where the liquid goes
Color scale excludes the United States so the next markets can be read. The US is marked in gold. Shipments are not consumption.
What this cycle means
Opportunities
Risks
Every number has a home
Open the original reporting. The page does not replace CRT, SIAP, DISCUS, or IWSR.
What was left open
If a figure could not be sourced, it was omitted rather than filled.